We haven't seen all three updates as were only sent one, so we have to assume (if we're wrong, please let us know dear readers) that this is pretty much a cut & paste single update (Editor's note: two updates) to the three Kickstarter projects. If you're looking for word on the three video Kickstarter projects, today is not your day....and likely 2018 is not your year.
"Look a heat foil machine!
This is for the people who say things like...
"You're a lying sack of $h!&!"(1)
"You're(2) mom would be sad that you're still alive"
"There is NO WAY you have a heat foil machine!" (3)
(seriously all of the above had been said to me)
Interestingly, now they will just SPIN to some other form of hate. Seriously if all you have is negative words, STFU. I don't care.(4) And, BTW, your pencils ship last you assholes. (5)
For all the other backers who have been waiting a long time, I do apologize, you deserve.(6) I look forward to sending you a NICE FOIL Stamped pencil and not some cheap ripoff silkscreen version that will rub off in time from friction on the table.(7)
Cheers,
Ken Whitman
PS- I will send pictures when the pencils get here."
Ok..where do we begin, other than with (1)?
1) Ken Whitman's many lies have been documented quite frequently here on NAD. Telling Ken "Whit" Whitman that he is has been untruthful is just a statement of fact, which coincidentally, is the most appropriate legal defense when Ken "Whit" Whitman claims he had been "libled".
2) "Your" It isn't like you've been an author or editor in previous employment......
3) This most likely was a truthful statement most likely until today or maybe this weekend or we would have been subjected to this update long before now. Don't forget these three Kickstarter projects haven't received an update in over two years!
4) If you didn't care then why did you bother to spend half of this update going over the subject of your "haters"?
5) Great, another example of Ken "Whit" Whitman arbitrarily deciding when/if he will fulfill his obligations to a backer based off of arbitrary criteria.
6) Deserve what? Updated more than every few years? Product pledged for? To be treated with some measure of respect?
7) So basically you're saying that the pencils that haven't been made, stamped, or shipped will actually be stamped as promised as a basic tenet of the Kickstarter project? You already promised, "Our Pencil Die is heat foil stamped and NOT silk screened" on the Pencil Dice Kickstarter. We noticed that this description isn't on the RPG Pencil Dice page so can we assume you already looked into the cheaper option for that Kickstarter? The fact that you mention it in this update makes us believe you've at least considered that option.....
"It's been a Long time guys...
...and I am truly sorry for the wait.
As of August 20th, 2018 I do own an industrial heat foil machine.(8)
I am waiting on pencils coming from china, this will take 45 days. 10-15 to print the colors, and 25 days to ship.(9)
And I am producing a very special mold (one of a kind) that will allow me to make about 24 Pencils a minute. Should be here within 30 days.(10)
Please update your shipping address by September 31, 2018. With luck on my side, most of you will have your pencils before the new year!(11)"
8) So the people calling Ken "Whit" Whitman a liar about having a "industrial foil machine" before today were actually correct according to this update!
9) 15 days plus 25 days equals 40 days....Ken "Whit" Whitman cannot even keep his fictional math straight. Yes, we're calling this fictional based on his many timelines concerning KoDT:LAS.
10) Making a "special mold"? Making 24 pencils at a time sounds nice, but a) does the machine even work with that much product(?), which we will discuss in a moment, and b) has he done the math? Not likely
11) Does Kenny even realize there is no "September 31st"? By giving a specific, yet non-existent date he is most likely trying to give backers hope that they might see their pencils ship by that date....but he's also kicking the date can down the road by stating "most" will have pencils by the end of the year. This is reminiscent of the frequent updates/comments that "most" of the people who have purchased the KoDT: 20 Years of Covers books got theirs. "Most" have not gotten the hardcovers and nobody has seen a softcover yet. Also.....according to the man himself, he won't even be able to print/stamp pencils, at best, by the end of September.
Looking behind the scenes a bit it appear that Ken "Whit" Whitman has picked up one of these hot foil machines, which can also be seen at this Amazon listing. Here is a Chinese video of the machine (along with probably a preview of a Chinese film). After seeing this in action it is hard to believe he can stamp 24 pencils a minute...remember that these pencils are stamped not once, but six (6!) times each, which means he'd actually be making 144 stamps per minute, or one stamp (of 6!) on one pencil every .42 seconds. We're thinking the machine would have to be much larger to even have a shot at such a production schedule.
Speaking of production schedule, we've done the math and have determined that Ken "Whit" Whitman has to produce 87, 523 pencils in 76 different formats to fulfill his Kickstarter obligations. luckily the majority of the variations really boil down to colors available and have not been factored into our math. While researching the heat foil machine there are two big things that came up. 1st was that this machine cannot do pencils (from the Amazon link)....
Now the argument could be made that he doesn't have this machine, but it is unlikely he has a machine that appears identical to this machine, but has drastically different functionality. 2nd, is that this machine requires kind of pricey molds for the stamps which run $126 each from the Aliexpress site. You know how we counted 76 different pencil types? That's just the completed pencils.....since there are six sides to each pencil the number of stamps required number 145 and the rough cost could run up to $18,270 (145 separate faces * $126).
TL;DR
Based off of our research and basic math, Ken "Whit" Whitman needs a lot of production costs and even at a stagger rate of 24 pencils a minute, assuming no set-up, tool changes, boxing, cleaning up, ANYTHING OTHER THAN STAMPING, it will take our main man 3646 minutes to make the pencils. This isn't bad, just a hair over 60 hours, not even a single week! If we use some benchmarks already established by Ken "Whit" Whitman, with regards to his work schedule....carry the one....he should be done on the 12th of Never. Sorry, but we used the only benchmark we had, which was the KoDT:LAS footage which seems to have always been "about two weeks" away from being completed. We think that instead of actually working towards Pencil Dice fulfillment, it's more likely that Ken "Whit" Whitman just got access to one of these machines to take a picture with so he can kick the Kickstarter can down the road some more, which fits his already established behavior.
There's a sold listing on eBay from 7/24/2018 for the exact model that he shows in his picture. I wouldn't put it past Ken to invest $50 (plus shipping) to create the illusion that progress is being made on this project.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.ebay.com/itm/WTJ-90A-Manual-Hot-Foil-Stamping-Machine-PVC-Card-Tipper-Bronzing-Machine-110V-/183336991024?nordt=true&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.m43663.l10137
The money he's going to make off of making fake credits cards, will make up for the $50 investment in keeping up appearances.
DeleteThat's right! For added proof he OUGHT to have connected that machine to his premises: photographed it in his house, or next to his shiny new car, or next to his luxury set of luggage as he plans to take off to a non-extraditable country...
ReplyDeleteSeriously, he's taking on this work personally instead of leaving it to pencil experts, which sounds like MORE work for him rather than if he had been forthright and completed the manufacturer arrangements with the same zeal as he had collected the money.
So Whitman probably spent $50 to but some machine and make it look like he is 'still working on the project'.
ReplyDeleteYeah I think it's quite possible that the machine is nothing more than a prop in his little charade.
DeleteForgot the sunk cost of all the foil for the machine to go on the pencil sides
ReplyDeleteDice cards is being fulfilled by someone else. Whitman is only giving them the mailing list and art work so THEY can send out the orders, and then have the rights to the artwork.
ReplyDeleteWhitman has just about NOTHING to do with getting Deck Dice done!
After reviewing my notes and other information, the idea that Whitman will ship before the end of the year, or even ship anything, seems remote.
ReplyDeleteI took a look at fulfilling some of the Pencil and RPG dice orders. In total there would need to be about 87,000 pencils for around 1,500 customers. The pencils can be made for several hundred dollars plus another several hundred to ship them to the United States. The total space that many pencils would take up would be about a cub 4 ft on each side.
My estimates were to get them stamped by the manufacturer but Whitman claims that he will stamp the pencils himself in a 24 pencil mold, meaning it would be at least 3,625 minutes or 60 hours.
After that Whitman would need to ship then pencils to all 1,500 plus backers.
So the total costs would be $700 for pencils plus $900 shipping plus another $1,500 in shipping at least for an estimate of about $3,100 outlay. Time would be at least 60 hours to stamp plus at least another 60 hours to ship assuming it only take a minute on average to prepare a shipment for a customer.
This is for a person that is reported to be late on the comic book store rent at least two weeks every month.
All indications are that Whitman does not have the time or money to be able to deliver anything, since any time or money taken from the comic book store would put him that further behind in paying said rent.
I have no idea why Whitman even bothers to make it look like he will ever be able to deliver anything.
Giving KtCM the benefit of the doubt I found a manual pencil stamping machine video. Now remember these dice are stamped on ALL sides (6 stamps per pencil) so this video shows about 12-14 seconds per side with a clean piece of embossing foil and no worries on maximizing yield. But wait, you can't do all 6 sides as you need to load one die, do all the pencils, load die 2, etc. Now lets assume a middle of the road orders were $20 for 24 pencils - Raised funds $38,000 /$20 (we are ignoring extras and the HUGE amount you got for more pencils for sense of hilarity) $38,000/$20 = 1900 backers x 24 pencils = 45,600 pencils to stamp. At 13 seconds per side you get 1.3 minutes per pencil(no packing, sorting, paperwork) 45,600 pencils x 1.3 minutes/pencil = 59280 minutes/60 = 980 hrs/8hrs= 12.5 8-hour days. A work week is 5 days (we want you to be able to enjoy your weekends) so that is 24.7 WEEKS of stamping pencils for your loyal backers. 6 Months of dedication foil stamping. I admire your dedication with your one.little.stamping.machine. Of course that doesn't account for the accessories you sold. That should take a few months off so you can work to get enough money to buy the pencils, free pencil holders, bags, stamping foils, etc.
ReplyDeleteDeck Dice update:
ReplyDeleteIt's been a Long time guys...
... and I am truly sorry for the wait.
I am working with a 3rd party to get this project to completion. I will spend more time talking details when I have them to give you.
Please update your shipping address by September 31, 2018. With luck on my side, most of you will have your dice deck before the new year!
-Ken Whitman
For Deck Dice, we are now three years after the first expected completion date first announced in the Kickstarter: Aug. 2015. Playing-card publishers abound, and Kenny made card designs (rather badly, as the geometric shapes don't always resemble the denomination of dice). So what's the hold-up?
DeleteWe are trying to get the rights information for the art and the mailing list so that backers can get their decks.
DeleteIt is commendable if someone is stepping in to bring forth those Deck Dice, but there is so much bad karma attached to a Ken Whitman project that I would probably vomit from the negative emotional vibes if I tried to use them. They will stay in a drawer. (I'm now using the more ornate Gamemaster's Apprentice random generator cards, which give not just dice-rolls but a variety of random plot and atmosphere details. They exist for several game genres.)
DeleteWhere can we update our addresses? There is no website for d20.
ReplyDeleteKen couldn't even ship the Traveller spaceships he had in hand, which he showed photographs of in his den/dining room, years ago, that people had prepaid him for, since he listed them on the D20 website as "shipping". Instead, he chose to screw the customers who prepaid him for that, and sold the miniatures a second time to companies that listed them on eBay, or sold them in their retail store. What a crafty way to DOUBLE his profits. Did the legal authorities ever catch up to him over ALL his other scams he allegedly perpetrated on other people? I figured he'd still be in jail now, if they had.
ReplyDelete